| Window | Dir | Entry | Size | Result | Fee | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting for first trade | ||||||
BTC price movement in the first 60 seconds of each 5-minute Polymarket window predicts the outcome more often than the token price implies.
When BTC drifts up in the opening minute, buy the UP token. When it drifts down, buy DOWN. Only trade when the entry price is $0.52-$0.60 (near 50/50 odds where our signal has the most edge). Skip 02-07 UTC when markets are dead.
Hold to resolution. Binary outcome. No exit needed.
The edge: a $0.55 token implies 55% win probability. Actual win rate is ~70%+.